Hoax Criticism and Wingspans

Estimated pterosaur wingspans, analyzed in recent statistics of eyewitness reports, show what would be expected of a variety of pterosaur species of different sizes, observed under various conditions by eyewitnesses having various abilities in estimating sizes. In other words, the sighting reports support the honesty of eyewitnesses, in general.

The following two graphs show a slow decline in numbers of reported sighting as the wingspan increases. The first graph has a column for every two feet of wingspan, increasing in wingspan to the right (the two greatest wingspans being beyond the scope of the graph). The second graph is similar, except that the columns are three feet apart in wingspan and the greatest two wingspan estimates are included.

wingspan estimates, with size in feet increases by two, to the right

estimated wingspans for pterosaurs, at three feet differences per columnThe second graph is better at showing the steady decline to the right, but this graph gives too much emphasis to the “b” column peak. In the first graph is it more difficult to see the slow slope to the right, but the peak is more accurately shown to be spread out around the lower-to-middle wingspans.

Nocturnal Pterosaurs in San Diego

I later talked with the eyewitness by phone, verifying his credibility (I found nothing in his words or manner of speaking that would suggest the possibility of a hoax). He varied in his estimate of the flying height: thirty yards instead of forty yards. The tail was long and straight. With one of the flying creatures, he noticed a movement that he interpreted as evidence for the animal’s breathing.

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